to help fund the payroll tax cut. it's simple. more spectrum means more freedom. for everyone. >> this is the "the chris matthews show." >> ask not what your country can do for you. >> tear down this wall. >> our time for change has come. chris: can't start loving that man. republican conservatives are rejecting mitt romney. three states this past week were asked to vote for him. three states said no. the dominant right refuses to buy a candidate they know is not one of them. when will the party base lose hope, give up and buy mitt? render under caesar, is health care at catholic colleges and hospital a matter of the church or the state? did the white house pick this fight? risky business. the wildest play in political

history, picking sarah palin. why did grim john mccain make such a wild pass? was he rejection of mitt as running made a sign of mitt's problems today? i am chris matthews. with us, "new york magazine's" john heileman, gloria borger, kathleen parker and clarence page. first up, two huge political explosions this week. mitt romney's enormous losses to rick santorum in three significant states, and that revolt by many catholics over the white house decision on birth control. first, romney's troubles. conservatives can't stanton barack obama, but when will they learn to stand romney prom? even after the white house handed them that huge contraceptives issue, republican voters stayed home in the three primary states this week. turn out was way down from 2008. but conservatives are the big prize. there are many more than before. they have gone from 29% of total voters in 2000 to 34% in 2004

and 2008. look at this. they now represent 39% of the people in the polls. the bad news for mitt romney, he is getting only 17% of conservatives, one in six. at the meeting in washington this week -- >> i am convinced if we do our job, if we lead with conviction and integrity, that history will record the obama presidency as the last gasp of liberalism's great failure. >> john, this losing 3-3, saying he might lose one, then he might lose two, strike out, all three. then you see all these discussions about cultural issues where he seems out to lunch. what does he know about bishops and these social issues? he wants to talk about equity and money. >> coming out of florida, that was supposed to be the end of the challenge to him. he was supposed to have february to himself and roll into super

tuesday as the ratified nominee. he has the same problem he has had all along. conservatives do not like him or trust him. they do not think he is a a conservative. >> i have never seen numbers this bad. s he was supposedly the front-runner coming into this week when he got slammed three times. one in six conservatives likes him. >> romney's campaign made a strategic error, and that is they did not court conservatives. they felt they needed to work on the moderates and the general. that is true. they didn't court conservatives, and now they are paying for that. each of the four candidates is a hero to a certain segment of the party. eventually i think they will rally around romney. >> he has made so many appeals to the right. he has said things like send them all home, self deportation to the tea party, which is strong, talking about going to war with iran.

what does he have to do? >> it is part of the courtship. it is not always the things that are said in public, but done haslinda the scenes. >> his economic message has an appeal to the right. their strategy was as long as we have this slew of candidates who are going to divide up the tea party conservatives and the evangelicals, we don't have to worry about that constituency because they are going to be split anyway. but now mitt romney finds himself in a situation where you have someone like rick santorum who actually appeals to them tremendously. and so he has a real problem. chris: i have a great new poll number here. you ask do you like mitt romney more the more you see him, or less. 52% of the people say they like less the more they see him. >> that is pretty unfortunate for him. that is a great understatement. [laughter] >> that is a tough question.

>> he has had a terrible problem with framing his answers to questions with just making simple statements, like the whole thing about poor people and all. he was making the same point bill colin can in 1992, saakshviliing the middle class, but romney doesn't know how to sell it and phrase it right. he gets him sieve into trouble. he has a charisma deficit. he is starting from a weak position, much like john mccain. >> they have to learn how to talk to people. >> he needs a new narrative. i have business experience doesn't exactly inspire people. he needs to say if he doesn't like washington, here is what you would do to fix it. tap into the anger. chris: the turn out question has been way down in the primaries. he did badly, but nobody seemed to show up. we asked the matthews meter,

would romney had turn out problems, and given what has happened so far. four out of eight say yes. clarence, you said yes. >> yes. i mentioned this for the john mccain parallel, and i am seeing deja vu all over again. obama enraged the right and got them fired up. >> romney has been waiting around and says make sure nobody is going to win this nomination but me. then i will be the only alternative for obama. the economy is going to be terrible and they will vote for me. the economy is getting better, and romney has not said what he would do to make it still better. >> there is no positive economic message coming out of him. his economic plan of 59 points, and he doesn't talk about them in the smeemps. for conservatives who want to here a powerful proactive

conservative message, they think he is kind of a goose egg. >> and he is so uncomfortable talking about his own wealth that they are afraid he is not going to come out and call for lower marginal tax rates. he has an economic speech coming up on february 24. chris: going to draw the big picture. let's go to the white house original decision to require catholic institutions to pay for birth control. here is what kathleen parker wrote. even though some catholic women may disagree with the church, but they still respect it. they don't want to see their church beat up. i thought you said it well. >> it has the added virtue of being true. the women i have talked to, i happen to have a lot of catholic friends for some reason, and they tell me over and over that

and they don't mind the contraception, and unfortunately this has become a conversation about contraception instead of what the larger concern is which is freedom of conscience and liberty. they are perfectly willing to approve contraception for others, but the church is being beaten up. >> the politics are interesting. clarence, we have been reading this. it has been seeping out of the white house how the decision was made. three women very concerned, secretary bale, and valerie, all went to the president with a case saying we have to make sure the women who work in these institutions are covered for reproductive rights and birth control. then a couple of guys got involved, the chief of stave and joe biden, but the president said nice try, guys, but i am listening to the women. they never checked for outside ramifications. >> this is being framed as a war against the church.

this is resonating a lot better than the war against christmas, which was a phantom. >> yes. >> but a war against the church, people perceived it that way, that the obama white house is battling against religious institutions and that government is intruding. that has some weight to it, whereas contraceptives, this is something that 99% of women support. >> rick santorum talks about it in terms of liberty. honestly, the democratic party does not want to be seen as the secular part again. it didn't work for john kerry. >> on two fronts, real problems here. chris: did they pick this fight? it may work to their advantage. they began to fix it on friday. they may have resolved it with some of the liberal catholics. it does make them look militant on women's rights, and that helps. >> i don't know if this wayne to be seen as militants on

anything, but they do want to be down with the ladies. they sea a margin -- see a margin against the republicans, who have a problem with women already. they can be super strong for women. chris: so they can show themselves to be strong for women's rights across the board and not be too strong for others. >> yes. that is not the true argument, and that is what the republicans -- they are in a dicey situation because they want to make that arkt for religious liberty. the women can prevail in this. it is very tricky in this. chris: let me go around the room. we talked about the selection on the party sides. will there be a republican nominee picked, presumably romney, before they get to tampa? >> i am afraid so, and i say that because i am a journalism. i would love to see it

differently. >> kathleen, will it be done before they get to a convention in tampa? >> i think they will pick a candidate. i don't think there is a lot of appetite for waiting until august. >> i think they are going to pick a candidate. i think the candidate may have some strings attached. are chris: what do you mean by that? will he have enough delegates to win? >> he may want to do this, this, this. >> who? >> santorum. there will be a meeting. chris: that is what she is saying, that is his a brokered situation. >> i think if mitt romney doesn't win arizona and one other, the odds are going way up. for mitt romney to lose michigan, where he is a favorite son, could be a huge thing. chris: before we break, our own john heileman, who just spoke, wrote the best seller game

changer and discussed the last presidential lexi. now hbo is coming out with a movie based on the book. in this story of john mccain and sarah palin's campaign, while the production designer paid close attention to detail, that convention is dead on. they tracked down the original campaign bus, resurrecting the straight talk express. i love that. julian moore's portrayal of sarah palin. take a look. >> they say the different between a hockey mom and a pit bull, lipstick. >> you know they say the different between a hockey mom and a pit bull, lipstick. >> look at this doppleganger. her famous interview with charlie gibson. >> you can actually see russian from land here in alaska. >> and john, look at ed harris cast at john mccain. he seems to have all the mccain

gestures and expressions. a pretty good likeness there. >> it is incredible. the performances in the movie are astonishing across the board. >> and you will want to see them. >> in due time. chris: when we come back, the return of sarah palin. that is going to scare people. how mccain took the huge risk by picking her in 2008. we are learning a lot from time. scoops and predictions from the notebooks when we come back.

chris: welcome back. we have been talking about the power of the far right. mitt romney's problem with the right is much like john mccain's problem was four years ago. mccain went with sarah palin, the drama with palin, the behind the scenes run away train her campaign became is coming to hbo

screams. the name of the movie is game change. this part of the trailer becomes with mccain's inside group reciting the list of unexciting guys they have considered for haven't, starting with mitt romney. >> romney, bloomberg. who can we win with? >> none of them. >> none of them? >> none of these middle aged white guys are game changers. >> find me a woman. >> if you are going to seriously consider the governor of alaska, you have to call her now. >> this is sarah. i'm not sure how much she knows about foreign policy. >> you can actually see russian from land here in alaska. >> oh, my god. what have we done? >> it wasn't my fall. i wasn't properly prepared. >> she is on the verge of a nervous breakdown. >> you are telling me what to wear, what to say, how to talk. i am not your puppet.

chris: wow. it seems like you are giving her a little break, but mainly is a knock on palin. >> the book tried to be fair to her. >> and you had her in a feetal position. >> there was both sides. there is no one who will see this movie who won't feel an enormous amount of admiration and see some problems. >> you are getting your jaw set here. you wrote an influential column saying she should quit the campaign? >> that was early on, september 26, 2008. i remember it because it was my birthday, and i got 20,000 e-mails. she is done the three big interviews on television, and it was clear to everyone that she was not quite ready for this game at that level. i actually wrote a very sympathetic column, i felt, even

though i did ultimately recommend she go ahead adrop out so mccain had time to regroup. fr what i've seen, i think it is a sympathetic portrait for her. she was put through hell on that campaign, and everybody will tell you that. she was in over her head absolutely, and she was treated terribly. >> by the campaign team? >> by nearly everyone. i read the book. i don't have the information john had. but from what i have heard from people, yes, she had a really rough time. >> she was not prepared on a number of different levels. she was not prepared to be picked, and she wasn't well prepared by the campaign. chris: this year. this summer coming up, is mitt romney going to have to throw a hail mary and go to the far right and put somebody on his ticket like palin, somebody who brings in that crowd on the right? >> i don't think it is in mitt romney's nature to go do that

and pick a sarah palin. i just don't think so. chris: does everybody agree with that, that he isn't going to go wild and pick a palin? >> i don't think so. i do think he is going to have to think about the right. i think his natural vice president choice would be a rob portman. chris: isn't that boring, real low key? >> that is exactly the discussion they were having in game changer. >> you get to that point where john mccain is told he can't win with the boring white guys, and that was the only way to change the game. >> i think mario rubio yo could do that. he is an unusual candidate and demographic, and he is a likable guy, and the right likes him. >> mitt romney has been bashed here. he has lots of good leadership

qualities, and his private sector experience brings lots to the table. if the economy is still in the pits, it is going to be a competence game. chris: thank you very much for ♪ [ male announcer ] for our families... our neighbors... and our communities... america's beverage companies have created a wide range of new choices. developing smaller portion sizes and more low- & no-calorie beverages... adding clear calorie labels so you know exactly what you're choosing...

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>> tell me something i don't know is brought to you by charles schwab. let's talk about the personal attention you and your money deserve. talk to chuck. chris: welcome back. john, tell me something i don't know. >> well, economics really aren't going to matter in this general lexi. private forecasters on wall street think unemployment is going to be below 8%, we are going to see steadying downward ticking of the rate. chris: go ahead. >> watch mitt romney's tone when he takes on rick santorum. they have made a decision in the campaign. it is not going to be like newt gingrich, whom they called erratic and unreliable, because rick santorum is too well liked.

they are going to take him on as a washington insider and big spender, but nothing personal. chris: kathleen? >> even though president obama has offered a compromise on the contraceptive issue, you may see other religious leaders form a company lation to take it to the high court. >> local news, the payroll fax deadline is up in three weeks. we are going to see a replay again of the battle between the republicans and democrats. both are going to cave a little, but republicans are going to cave more, and you are going to see this extended once again. chris: when we come back, the big question of the week, and this is tricky. are the questions about jack kennedy's sexual nature hurting him?

chris: welcome back. this week a new book by mimi alford, the 19-year-old intern saying that jack kennedy seduced her in the white house. does this story and others like it diminish kennedy's place in history? >> i think not at all. the notion of jack kennedy as a horn dog is pretty much priced in the stock. i don't think it changes the picture at all. chris: gloria as a woman? remember think the story is awful and zickable, but i think the question has been asked and answered on kennedy. >> john? you are yuaning. >> that was my reaction. it seems like deja vu once again as far as that aspect of kennedy's character goes. his image is still larger than that. >> i wrote a much more comprehensive book. it is all a part of the picture.

you can't defend it. thanks to the round table. that is the show. thanks for watching. we will see you back here next week. [ male announcer ] for our families... our neighbors... and our communities... america's beverage companies have created a wide range of new choices. developing smaller portion sizes and more low- & no-calorie beverages... adding clear calorie labels so you know exactly what you're choosing... and in schools, replacing full-calorie soft drinks with lower-calorie options. with more choices and fewer calories, america's beverage companies are delivering. in more ways than ever. and our networks are getting crowded. but if congress frees up more wireless spectrum, we can empower more people to innovate, create jobs, and put momentum behind our economy. and a spectrum auction could raise as much as 30 billion dollars

to help fund the payroll tax cut. it's simple. more spectrum means more freedom. for everyone.